Home prices have now been rising for eight months, and are now up more than
11 percent from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The current supply on the market fell 1.4 percent in October, representing a
5.4-month supply, down from 7.6 months a year ago and the lowest level of supply
since early 2006.
If home prices continue to rise as expected, it will have two significant
effects on the labor market in the coming year and years ahead. The most direct
result will be the increase in U.S. home construction. Not only did new home
starts jump at an annualized rate of 15 percent in September, existing home
sales often also results in more construction jobs as home owners renovate
before selling or after purchasing.
"Construction employment is still down by 2.2 million jobs compared to its
pre-recession peak and has had virtually no recovery," says Rob Romaine,
president of
MRINetwork. "Despite being less than 5 percent of
the total U.S. workforce, that represents more than half of the 4.2 million jobs
deficit from the pre-recession peak. Any economic activity that can increase
employment for the sector will have the most immediate effect of reducing total
U.S. unemployment and increasing U.S. consumer spending power."
Rising home prices will also add to U.S. spending power in another
way--increasing equity. The cumulative growth in home equity has added $760
billion in equity to the U.S. economy, nearly equal to the $787-billion economic
stimulus package approved in early 2009. Yet, that program was phased in over
three years, whereas growing home equity will add another $1 trillion in the
next year. While home equity can't immediately be spent on groceries or a new
TV, especially if a mortgage is underwater, it can make obtaining credit easier,
and can make consumers more confident to spend the cash they do have. Receipts
from the holiday shopping season are just starting to be tallied but projections
suggest total revenue in 2012 will grow by 4.1 percent, above the 3.5 percent
average growth in the last decade.
"About 700,000 temporary retail jobs have been created this holiday season,
up from last year. But retail jobs are just the last link in a long chain of
jobs created by Black Friday and the weeks after it," says Romaine. "Should
projections for a strong holiday season pan out, revenues over the last five
weeks of the year will spur a new round of hiring for product development,
design, manufacturing, supply chain, marketing, and branding professionals and
managers to create and sell products for the 2013 holiday season."
While the economy's momentum continues to build, several significant and
fast-approaching storm clouds remain on the horizon. Lawmakers have pushed
several critical decisions into the post-election season. Consequentially,
before the new year, a lame duck session of Congress will need to revisit a
series of temporary tax cuts set to expire, new taxes set to be levied to
support the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
(PPACA),
expiring extended unemployment benefits, a 30 percent reduction in Medicare
payments to doctors, and the first of eight annual $109 billion cuts in defense
spending.
Collectively known as the fiscal cliff, should the laws stand as they are now
written, more than $500 billion will be removed from the economy in 2013,
causing a projected 0.5 percent drop in GDP. According to the Congressional
Budget Office, this double-dip recession could cause the unemployment rate to
surge back to 9 percent by the end of 2013.
"No one expects the fiscal cliff to occur in its current form, but what
compromises will be made are still largely unknown," says Romaine. "Should the
compromise be modest enough to prevent a double-dip recession, momentum in both
the residential real estate market and consumer goods sectors bode well for
unemployment to continue to decline next year as demand for professionals across
industries will remain strong."